S7
Live results · tracked since 2026-10-01

Do these playbooks actually work? Tracked live, in public.

Paper-tracked in real time, not real money (the one real-money account is on our /transparency page). Every pick is judged on trades that happen after the rules were written, so the rules cannot have been fitted to the past. Backtests are easy to flatter. So from 2026-10-01 every pick the engine writes is tracked as it happens, with the pass/fail rules published before a single result existed. Nothing is back-filled or edited. For a long time this page will honestly say too early. That is the point.

Two views of the same playbooks. This page is the edge test: every engine pick counts as one trade risking 1R, ignoring cash and share-count limits, which answers "does the signal work?". Each playbook also has a trader's journal (linked in the table below): a $1,000 account that follows the playbook, with open positions, trades and equity in real time. A small account cannot take every pick, so the two will differ. The journals count from 2026-09-28; trades before 2026-10-01 came from the earlier system and are kept for the record. This page counts from 2026-10-01 only.

A third view: positions and P&L. The Track record page lists every open position with entry, current price and P&L, and the closed trades, per playbook and strategy, in R. It counts only cards that actually filled, so cards that gapped past their entry (counted here as 0R rows) appear there as skipped, not as trades.

We also publish what we got wrong: the backtests we use for context are survivorship-biased upper bounds, and the earlier LLM-picked-levels system that ran before October lost money (about -0.27R per trade); this page does not include any of it.

9closed trades (all playbooks)
122open positions · 131 picks over 5 days
-0.22Raverage result per closed trade
-90% interval (needs 3+ entry weeks)
0%win rate
TOO EARLY
pooled verdict

We need 21 more closed trades before any verdict means anything (rule below). Realistic timing: a single playbook needs roughly 100 to 150 closed trades to show an edge, because most trades lose and a few big winners carry the average. The pooled book gets there first.

Checkpoints

2026-11-01 · upcoming
2026-12-01 · upcoming
2027-01-01 · upcoming

We review at each checkpoint and change nothing in between based on forward results.

By playbook

"Backtest" is the average R from our own historical study at that playbook's exit. Treat it as an upper bound: the test universe is survivor-biased. A playbook only gets a verdict after 30 closed trades.

PlaybookPicksOpenClosedWin rateAvg R90% intervalBacktest avg RVerdict
Seasoned Swing
see this trader's journal →		21174 0% -0.25 -+0.18 TOO EARLY
Base and Break
see this trader's journal →		20173 0% -0.34 -+0.16 TOO EARLY
Master Reversal
see this trader's journal →		15141 0% +0.00 -+0.22 TOO EARLY
Weinstein Stage 2
see this trader's journal →		10100 - - -+0.52 TOO EARLY
VCP
see this trader's journal →		10100 - - -+0.16 TOO EARLY
Stage 2 Cycle
see this trader's journal →		10100 - - -+0.17 TOO EARLY
Momentum Sniper
see this trader's journal →		10100 - - -+0.15 TOO EARLY
Weinstein 4B Trader
see this trader's journal →		10100 - - -+0.24 TOO EARLY
Wyckoff
see this trader's journal →		990 - - -+0.55 TOO EARLY
Qullamaggie
see this trader's journal →		871 0% +0.00 -+0.29 TOO EARLY
Darvas Box
see this trader's journal →		880 - - -+0.14 TOO EARLY

Playbooks that show no picks have had no qualifying setups since tracking began (for example while the market-breadth gate was red).

Does the market-breadth gate help?

Picks recorded on days the playbook's breadth gate was green versus red. Red-day picks are shown on the site but not traded by the auto-trader, so this is a free comparison. The gate was only recorded on each pick from 2026-10-04, so earlier picks are not in this split.

Gate on the signal dayPicksClosedAvg R
Green00-
Red00-

What the results look like

Distribution of closed trades by result in R. A strategy like this usually loses on most trades; the question is whether the winners are big enough.

worse than -1R0
-1R to -0.5R2
-0.5R to 07
0 to +1R0
+1R to +3R0
above +3R0

The rules we fixed in advance

Written on 2026-10-04, before any outcome existed. They cannot be loosened to fit results.

  1. Only picks written by the deterministic engine from 2026-10-01 onward count. Nothing is back-filled and nothing is edited.
  2. Result per trade = R multiple: profit or loss divided by the risk set when the trade was planned (1R = distance from entry to stop). Fills are modelled at the next session's open; exits follow each playbook's published exit rule.
  3. Fewer than 30 closed trades: TOO EARLY. No conclusions, in either direction.
  4. 30 or more closed trades and the 90% interval is entirely above zero: KEEP (evidence of an edge).
  5. 30 or more closed trades, average above zero but the interval includes zero: REVIEW (positive, unproven).
  6. 60 or more closed trades, average below zero and the whole interval below zero: CUT-CANDIDATE (the owner decides; nothing is removed automatically).
  7. The interval is a bootstrap over whole weeks of entries, because trades entered in the same week are correlated.
  8. Checkpoints: 2026-11-01, 2026-12-01 and 2027-01-01. Nothing is tuned between checkpoints on forward data.
  9. If the pooled book still shows no edge at 2027-01-01 with 150 or more closed trades, we stop adding strategies and rethink exits and sizing.

Open positions right now

Named as they are opened, with the planned levels. They are not part of any number or verdict above, which use closed trades only.

PlaybookTickerPickedPlanned entryStopTarget
VCPVRNS2026-10-07 49.0945.1554.38
Stage 2 CycleVRNS2026-10-07 49.0945.1554.38
Darvas BoxVREX2026-10-07 18.4918.43trailing exit
Weinstein 4B TraderTPC2026-10-07 89.0781.81trailing exit
Base and BreakSOFI2026-10-07 15.7715.2217.60
WyckoffREG2026-10-07 71.4367.8677.43
Weinstein 4B TraderREG2026-10-07 71.4367.8677.43
Darvas BoxPH2026-10-07 984.92943.561067.61
QullamaggieOPCH2026-10-07 31.0130.97trailing exit
Weinstein Stage 2OKE2026-10-07 89.2487.88trailing exit
VCPOGN2026-10-07 13.7513.7013.81
Momentum SniperOGN2026-10-07 13.7513.7013.81
Stage 2 CycleOGN2026-10-07 13.7513.7013.81
Weinstein 4B TraderOGE2026-10-07 45.8544.2149.10
VCPMXL2026-10-07 109.31100.56136.24
Seasoned SwingMXL2026-10-07 109.31100.56136.24
Base and BreakMXL2026-10-07 109.31100.56136.24
Base and BreakMRVL2026-10-07 287.02250.97trailing exit
QullamaggieLW2026-10-07 47.9245.8255.61
Darvas BoxKRP2026-10-07 14.9514.3916.04
Weinstein 4B TraderKRP2026-10-07 14.9514.3916.04
WyckoffKRG2026-10-07 24.1422.7426.70
Weinstein Stage 2KRC2026-10-07 33.9133.45trailing exit
Base and BreakKEYS2026-10-07 388.04367.47464.52
Weinstein Stage 2HZO2026-10-07 52.4052.2353.72
Darvas BoxHZO2026-10-07 52.4052.19trailing exit
Base and BreakGRPN2026-10-07 18.8517.8922.17
Seasoned SwingFNKO2026-10-07 6.125.627.32
Weinstein Stage 2EZPW2026-10-07 30.8630.70trailing exit
WyckoffEZPW2026-10-07 30.8630.70trailing exit
Stage 2 CycleEXTR2026-10-07 24.5523.51trailing exit
Weinstein Stage 2EQIX2026-10-07 1047.371036.37trailing exit
WyckoffEQIX2026-10-07 1047.371036.37trailing exit
Stage 2 CycleEQIX2026-10-07 1047.371036.37trailing exit
Weinstein 4B TraderEQIX2026-10-07 1047.371036.37trailing exit
VCPEHC2026-10-07 124.70120.27129.20
Momentum SniperEHC2026-10-07 124.70120.27129.20
Stage 2 CycleEHC2026-10-07 124.70120.27129.20
Momentum SniperCOP2026-10-07 129.36119.88145.13
QullamaggieCOKE2026-10-07 194.62194.05trailing exit
VCPCOKE2026-10-07 194.62194.05trailing exit
Seasoned SwingCOKE2026-10-07 194.62194.05trailing exit
Momentum SniperCOKE2026-10-07 194.62194.05trailing exit
WyckoffCLSK2026-10-07 12.3011.2821.34
QullamaggieCEG2026-10-07 300.41284.47352.60
Seasoned SwingAPH2026-10-07 88.6388.21trailing exit
Momentum SniperAPH2026-10-07 88.6388.21trailing exit
Weinstein 4B TraderVIRT2026-10-06 62.8954.04trailing exit
VCPV2026-10-06 369.72361.24380.07
Momentum SniperV2026-10-06 369.72361.24380.07
Stage 2 CycleV2026-10-06 369.72361.24380.07
QullamaggieUTZ2026-10-06 14.2914.26trailing exit
Darvas BoxUTZ2026-10-06 14.2914.1814.48
VCPUTZ2026-10-06 14.2914.26trailing exit
Seasoned SwingUTZ2026-10-06 14.2914.26trailing exit
Momentum SniperUTZ2026-10-06 14.2914.26trailing exit
Darvas BoxSTLD2026-10-06 241.05221.45trailing exit
Seasoned SwingRXO2026-10-06 28.6626.3634.70
VCPQLYS2026-10-06 198.69182.79225.39
Master ReversalPZZA2026-10-06 19.5517.4324.23
Master ReversalPTCT2026-10-06 63.6657.4076.60
Weinstein 4B TraderPNW2026-10-06 95.9792.48102.93
WyckoffPEP2026-10-06 125.66118.60138.77
Weinstein 4B TraderPEP2026-10-06 125.66118.60138.77
Stage 2 CycleOXY2026-10-06 58.3256.47trailing exit
WyckoffOHI2026-10-06 45.3742.8250.37
Darvas BoxNUE2026-10-06 251.42230.77trailing exit
Weinstein Stage 2MO2026-10-06 67.8967.54trailing exit
WyckoffMO2026-10-06 67.8967.54trailing exit
Stage 2 CycleMO2026-10-06 67.8967.54trailing exit
Weinstein Stage 2MNST2026-10-06 43.5242.80trailing exit
Master ReversalJ2026-10-06 138.68131.46153.12
VCPIEX2026-10-06 235.30217.31254.43
Momentum SniperIEX2026-10-06 235.30217.31254.43
Stage 2 CycleIEX2026-10-06 235.30217.31254.43
Weinstein Stage 2FOXF2026-10-06 19.2418.73trailing exit
WyckoffFOXF2026-10-06 19.2418.73trailing exit
Darvas BoxEXPD2026-10-06 194.13185.98210.40
Weinstein 4B TraderECHO2026-10-06 98.2291.74111.15
Master ReversalDG2026-10-06 119.33112.73133.90
Base and BreakCORT2026-10-06 122.04104.75trailing exit
Base and BreakCOLL2026-10-06 21.8820.9524.75
Weinstein Stage 2CNR2026-10-06 91.0289.82trailing exit
Weinstein Stage 2CMS2026-10-06 64.0464.0369.26
Weinstein 4B TraderCAH2026-10-06 233.13218.86trailing exit
VCPATKR2026-10-06 94.7994.5895.01
Momentum SniperATKR2026-10-06 94.7994.5895.01
Stage 2 CycleATKR2026-10-06 94.7994.5895.01
Base and BreakALGT2026-10-06 75.1572.5685.76
QullamaggieACVA2026-10-06 10.5110.44trailing exit
Seasoned SwingACVA2026-10-06 10.5110.44trailing exit
Momentum SniperACVA2026-10-06 10.5110.44trailing exit
Seasoned SwingABSI2026-10-06 11.5410.6114.57
Base and BreakABSI2026-10-06 11.5410.6114.57
Master ReversalSUI2026-10-05 110.76104.78122.72
Base and BreakSEZL2026-10-05 107.42103.04125.14
Master ReversalMPLX2026-10-05 56.3953.2562.87
Base and BreakHAE2026-10-05 104.69102.20112.54
QullamaggieGSAT2026-10-05 83.2383.00trailing exit
Seasoned SwingGSAT2026-10-05 83.2383.00trailing exit
Seasoned SwingDIOD2026-10-05 103.8595.53121.64
Seasoned SwingBAND2026-10-05 63.7558.6481.48
Base and BreakBAND2026-10-05 63.7558.6481.48
Base and BreakVRTX2026-10-02 506.75494.92543.30
Seasoned SwingLITE2026-10-02 1045.79962.121314.36
Base and BreakLITE2026-10-02 1045.79962.121314.36
Master ReversalKRG2026-10-02 24.4523.1727.66
Master ReversalDVA2026-10-02 176.36165.84197.98
Master ReversalBRX2026-10-02 27.5826.1631.15
Seasoned SwingAPLE2026-10-02 16.3816.07trailing exit
Master ReversalVG2026-10-01 12.6511.4814.62
Master ReversalTJX2026-10-01 132.32126.30144.34
Seasoned SwingTECH2026-10-01 72.4872.2972.82
Master ReversalROKU2026-10-01 152.29147.03163.25
Seasoned SwingONTO2026-10-01 307.83283.19353.86
Base and BreakONTO2026-10-01 307.83283.19353.86
Master ReversalENS2026-10-01 183.54172.97204.66
Master ReversalBSY2026-10-01 31.9629.1636.74
Base and BreakAMN2026-10-01 35.8833.0040.72
Seasoned SwingAMN2026-10-01 35.8833.0040.72
Base and BreakACVA2026-10-01 10.4410.2811.22
Seasoned SwingACA2026-10-01 146.16145.71146.89

Every closed trade

Listed after exit, newest first.

Show / hide the 9 most recent closed trades
PlaybookTickerPickedExitedHeld (days)Result (R)Result (%)
Master ReversalRXO2026-10-052026-10-05- +0.00+0.0%
QullamaggieNVDA2026-10-052026-10-05- +0.00+0.0%
Seasoned SwingNVDA2026-10-052026-10-05- +0.00+0.0%
Seasoned SwingDV2026-10-012026-10-05- -1.00-0.3%
Seasoned SwingSTX2026-10-022026-10-02- +0.00+0.0%
Seasoned SwingVICR2026-10-022026-10-02- +0.00+0.0%
Base and BreakKOD2026-10-022026-10-02- -1.00-8.5%
Base and BreakAVR2026-10-022026-10-02- +0.00+0.0%
Base and BreakVLTO2026-10-012026-10-01- -0.02-0.0%

How to read this honestly

  • This is research and education, not investment advice. Paper tracking; results are modelled with next-open fills and published exit rules.
  • "Too early" is not a failure and not a success. Small samples swing wildly.
  • Backtest numbers are context only. We know our test universe skips companies that failed, so real results are likely lower.
  • Raw data: /api/forward-test (updates every few minutes). Last computed 2026-10-07T13:31:17Z.
  • The paper-portfolio view of the same playbooks is at /transparency/paper.